Real estate has been on a tear for several years now. I have enjoyed the prosperity it has brought me, since I sell real estate. It also has me contemplating the next real estate crash.
I cannot predict the top of the market, and neither can you. The stock market has reached all-time highs, real estate debt is far higher than before the crisis of the last decade. It seems to me we are on a precipice. Perhaps we will pull back, perhaps not.
If you're staying put for the next decade or two a downturn won't kick you in the teeth. If you are looking to get out at some point you really want to keep your ear to the ground. In fact you probably want to keep your ear turned our way. We are watching this like a hawk as it is our business to know real estate.
While I can't predict the top I can predict when the next downturn will start. Once the stock market rolls over and dies, like it always does, real estate will follow shortly thereafter. First it will slow down, days on market will increase and then the downturn will begin.
It used to be that the stock market and real estate were counter cyclical. Not anymore. Once people start to feel much less wealthy they are going to pull in their horns, and their wallets. The last downturn is still fresh in many peoples minds and when they start sensing a sinking ship, they are all going to be heading for the life boats.
When days on the market start to increase significantly, we are at the top. Get out, or plan to hang out for the long term.